# Supply Disruptions...Hogs



## indaswamp (Sep 29, 2021)

> US hog herds experienced the most significant monthly drop in two decades, according to new data from the USDA. The reason behind the drop is because farmers decreased hog-herd development over the last year due to labor disruptions at slaughterhouses plus high animal feed.
> 
> USDA data showed the US hog herd was 3.9% lower in August than a year ago. It was the largest monthly drop since 1999 after analysts only expected a decline of about 1.7%





> To sum up, shrinking hog herds means pork prices will stay high.



You find a good sale, better get it now....
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-hog-herd-hit-largest-monthly-drop-1999

Word is the chicken supply is in even worse shape...wish i knew that before I ate here:

Went to a Quaker State restaurant this past weekend. Spent all day saturday helping my brother swap out the engine in his old dodge truck. Not up for cooking that night, so we ate out. His choice of restaurants. Got the menu and chicken wings were marked "at market price". First time I have EVER seen that for chicken...thought nothing of it....and order a dozen wings with a fountain drink. Got the check, $25.56!!! I was stunned...holey crap! For damn chicken wings!!!


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## mike243 (Sep 29, 2021)

Prices are getting bad at restaurants due to folks not wanting to work and the owners saying pay the price if you want to eat here, lotta lazy folks that eat out every meal and will pay the price


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## mr_whipple (Sep 29, 2021)

Yep... keep working harder. Someone else wants to give someone else your money.


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## indaswamp (Sep 29, 2021)

1/4# hamburger with FF was $8.99, which I thought reasonable. Had I known ....or asked the bartender what the price was before I ordered; I would have got the hamburger.

But I do get your point about the labor angle...


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## Chasdev (Sep 29, 2021)

News bulletin, people are leaving low paying jobs and switching over to better paying jobs.
Then places that don't offer higher pay complain about lazy workers.
Workers complain about working too many hours and not being able to afford rent or food for their kids, not to mention car payments, fuel for same ect.....
And still I read about places that offer living wages having no trouble finding or keeping workers, lazyness must be regional.
I'm heading out to stock the freezer today, thanks for the heads up!


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## Dive Bar Casanova (Sep 29, 2021)

3 sides at COSTCO were $28 to $32 for years up to earlier this year. Same thing today is $68 to $72.
I suspect their sales are slow since Labor Day weekend. Unaffordable. The reach-ins are full and COSTCO has been slammed with customers all week long. 

Ellis Island Casino restaurant in Vegas serves a full side for $15!
I'll check that out next week. Supposed to be good but could be skin and bone like they serve at Fridays.


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## BrianGSDTexoma (Sep 29, 2021)

I don't see chicken wings in store anymore.


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## xbubblehead (Sep 29, 2021)

I'm getting into Tofu and Vegetable grilling and smoking.  I haven't been able to afford beef in months and now pork and poultry are joining that list.  Going to Sam's Club this morning to see if I can afford a pork butt to cut into steaks and pulled pork, probably my last shot at it.


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## sawhorseray (Sep 29, 2021)

Since I got my Vortex about a year ago I started doing yardbird legs instead of wings, more meat less money. Yesterday at Sam's legs were 92¢ a pound, I'm stocked up. RAY


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## SecondHandSmoker (Sep 29, 2021)

To think that this time last year, ranchers were killing hogs and beef then just dumping the carcasses because Covid shutdown the processors.


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## xbubblehead (Sep 29, 2021)

Update:  Sam's Club has Pork Butt for $1.67/lb, if you have one near you might want to get over there.  I got one that I'll cut steaks off the end and use the rest for pulled pork.


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## mneeley490 (Sep 29, 2021)

Yeah, I've stopped buying beef and pork. I still have a good supply in my freezer that I'm raiding. Local Fred Meyer store (owned by Kroger) had whole chickens for $.88 lb. this week, so I stocked up on that.


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## chopsaw (Sep 29, 2021)

sawhorseray said:


> legs were 92¢ a pound,





mneeley490 said:


> whole chickens for $.88 lb.


Just for my own info , are the chickens a brand name ?
$.99 a pound for Tyson whole chickens and legs is a good price around here .
About 2 weeks ago GFS had legs and thighs for $.79 a pound . So I grabbed a several trays . These just said " Chicken " on the package . Not a brand name .
Cooked some legs first . They were  tough and chewy . Now I can cook some chicken parts , but I blamed myself .  It happens .
Next cook was some of the no brand thighs . Same result . Tough and stringy meat . I'm thinking the low price no brand stuff is the problem . They must have cut up some stewing hens to make up for a shortage .


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## nchapelheel (Sep 29, 2021)

Whole pork loin was 1.99 per pound at Wegmans in Chapel Hill, NC. I bought one and it is in cure to make Canadian bacon.


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## rjob (Sep 29, 2021)

Chart is published weekly.  Good guide for price trends. When viewing chart additional columns are available to the right depending on viewing screen. Year ago price and % increase. 










						Weekly Pork Price Summary - Pork Checkoff
					

See wholesale pork pricing by cut for this week from the USDA.




					www.porkcheckoff.org


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## smokeymose (Sep 29, 2021)

I gave up on wings when the price for a tray of Tyson was almost $20 a few weeks ago.
Legs, thighs and breasts are higher but still more reasonable (for now anyway).
Same with most pork, higher but there are sales. Beef is through the roof and has been for a while.
I don't see it getting better anytime soon.....


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## smokeymose (Sep 29, 2021)

Chasdev said:


> News bulletin, people are leaving low paying jobs and switching over to better paying jobs.
> Then places that don't offer higher pay complain about lazy workers.
> Workers complain about working too many hours and not being able to afford rent or food for their kids, not to mention car payments, fuel for same ect.....
> And still I read about places that offer living wages having no trouble finding or keeping workers, lazyness must be regional.
> I'm heading out to stock the freezer today, thanks for the heads up!


You're onto something there, Chasdev.
Employers say they can't get help and it is more of a problem today, but they want to pay the same wages they paid over a year ago.
I used to have to explain to execs when they complained about my not having enough help
that you couldn't get good people for $12 or $13 an hour like when they were doing it.
I was starting people at $15 to $17 three years ago, caught hell for it and still couldn't keep help.
Yes, prices go up as wages go up but there's a reason. They're intertwined and it's been going on forever.
So glad I'm retired and out of that rat race....


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## xbubblehead (Sep 29, 2021)

smokeymose said:


> You're onto something there, Chasdev.
> Employers say they can't get help and it is more of a problem today, but they want to pay the same wages they paid over a year ago.
> I used to have to explain to execs when they complained about my not having enough help
> that you couldn't get good people for $12 or $13 an hour like when they were doing it.
> ...


So from a consumer's perspective I suppose we want to keep wages as low as possible!  I know wages have increased and wage demands are also, partly due to paying so much for people not to work, but I can't believe a 10-15% (I think that's a large overestimate) increase in wages results in 40-60%+ increase in prices.  Perhaps each worker processes one or two pieces per hour?


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## BB-que (Sep 29, 2021)

indaswamp said:


> You find a good sale, better get it now....
> https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-hog-herd-hit-largest-monthly-drop-1999
> 
> Word is the chicken supply is in even worse shape...wish i knew that before I ate here:
> ...


It’s too damn bad - and I know rightfully so this is a politics free forum thank god but you now have 5 years of terrible fiscal policy causing mass inflation and worker shortages.  Last admin artificially kept interest rates low in order to artificially prop up the stock market and people’s savings - the problem with that is it also causes big inflation down the road,  which we’re now seeing especially in essential items like food.  And now you have free money for all.  Perfect storm of 2 terms of short sighted policy and we all get left with a dollar that ain’t worth shit.   Rant over


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## smokeymose (Sep 29, 2021)

xbubblehead said:


> So from a consumer's perspective I suppose we want to keep wages as low as possible!  I know wages have increased and wage demands are also, partly due to paying so much for people not to work, but I can't believe a 10-15% (I think that's a large overestimate) increase in wages results in 40-60%+ increase in prices.  Perhaps each worker processes one or two pieces per hour?


It's just people/corporations using it as an excuse to raise their prices.
Also been going on forever.
Remember when fuel prices went way up and trucking/shipping companies added a "fuel surcharge" to every invoice?
Caught on like wildfire and never went away....


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## Bearcarver (Sep 29, 2021)

smokeymose said:


> I gave up on wings when the price for a tray of Tyson was almost $20 a few weeks ago.
> Legs, thighs and breasts are higher but still more reasonable (for now anyway).
> Same with most pork, higher but there are sales. Beef is through the roof and has been for a while.
> I don't see it getting better anytime soon.....




Exactly!!
I gave up on Wings, before I ever started---Been all bones & Skin forever, and Legs & Thighs have been cheaper for a long time!! 

Bear


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## Bearcarver (Sep 29, 2021)

smokeymose said:


> You're onto something there, Chasdev.
> Employers say they can't get help and it is more of a problem today, but they want to pay the same wages they paid over a year ago.
> I used to have to explain to execs when they complained about my not having enough help
> that you couldn't get good people for $12 or $13 an hour like when they were doing it.
> ...




Exactly!!
I remember before the last time they raised the Minimum Wage. The ones who wanted people to work for Peanuts threatened that the Fast food joints would have to raise prices or lay off & make some things Self Service.
Then the day after they raised the Minimum Wage, all of the Fast Food Joints in my area had Help Wanted signs in every window & door.
Business was booming & they were hiring!!

Bear


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## Lorenzoid (Sep 29, 2021)

xbubblehead said:


> Update:  Sam's Club has Pork Butt for $1.67/lb, if you have one near you might want to get over there.  I got one that I'll cut steaks off the end and use the rest for pulled pork.



Good deal.  At Costco their Swift butt was $2.49/lb. today.


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## xbubblehead (Sep 29, 2021)

It's a chicken first or egg first question to me; if you raise prices workers wages will have to increase or if you raise wages prices will shortly follow.  Either way, those of us on fixed incomes get it where it hurts.


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## indaswamp (Sep 29, 2021)

I was not intending for this thread to go off on a tangent with the labor market, nor the politics involved. Just a heads up on rising prices because of a artificially constrained market due to Covid shutdowns. Which is another tangent....whether you believe they were the right thing to do or are convinced shutting down the economy was the wrong,fact remains there were repercussions  economically. This is one of them....


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## pineywoods (Sep 29, 2021)

As Indaswamp said let's not get into politics anymore than this thread has already went. Many of you are talking politics but not seeing any mention of the high costs of feed and those prices have gone crazy as well. 
I looked at wings a couple weeks ago at a local grocery store and quickly decided legs or thighs cook up just fine and as was said a lot more meat on them. Have a friend with 2 teenage boys he decided awhile back with the way they ate wings thighs were the way to go for them


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## tallbm (Sep 29, 2021)

Once it cools down, and if I can get the chance, I'll go pop about about 3-4 wild hogs and stock up on about 200 pounds of deboned pork and give some away to family.  Plenty of them tasty wild bastards running around Texas :D


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## indaswamp (Sep 30, 2021)

tallbm said:


> Once it cools down, and if I can get the chance, I'll go pop about about 3-4 wild hogs and stock up on about 200 pounds of deboned pork and give some away to family.  Plenty of them tasty wild bastards running around Texas :D


It's times like these that I appreciate all the wild game we have in the freezers, along with the 120-150# of feral hog meat. I also have a lot of domestic hog left from the hog I butchered in Feb. 2021. The fat is not good for making salami, so I will be making smoke sausage with it and mixing some with the deer we harvest this fall for fresh sausage. 

I bought 2-3 pork bellies @ Costco back in April/May for a decent price and will be making bacon when the weather cools off...


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## tallbm (Sep 30, 2021)

indaswamp said:


> It's times like these that I appreciate all the wild game we have in the freezers, along with the 120-150# of feral hog meat. I also have a lot of domestic hog left from the hog I butchered in Feb. 2021. The fat is not good for making salami, so I will be making smoke sausage with it and mixing some with the deer we harvest this fall for fresh sausage.
> 
> I bought 2-3 pork bellies @ Costco back in April/May for a decent price and will be making bacon when the weather cools off...


I hear ya.  I need to work down my little stand up freezer and have it prepped for all that wild hog meat I hope to get. 
The holy grail for me is to knock down a "fairly clean" giant hog and grind that whole sucker.  Scoring 275-300lb hogs yield about 100lbs of ground in one porker!!!  Add some pork fat and boom a freezer full of franks, brats, italian sausage, and breakfast sausage!

I'm hopeful I can get back to the hunt.  Laster year my hunting had to be put aside due to COVID craziness and this year is all make up for last year's craziness so my hunting will be purely when/if the opportunity comes.  I'm eyeballing next year to get back into the regular groove.  Had 10yrs straight of excellent hunting until the world fell apart. 
I'll get back to it though, I just gotta continue to be patient :D


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## JC in GB (Sep 30, 2021)

Nowhere in the US media are they talking about the 800 pound hog in the room.  That is the Chinese pork market.  Here are some items that may help give a broader picture of what is really going on.  Not that the factors listed previously aren't contributing to the high prices.

1) China owns Smithfield foods; the largest pork producer in the USA
2) China has had a market shortage for months because of a swine flu outbreak in mainland China
3) China is exporting pork from the USA to China to fill their demand and then screwing it to America with shortages and high prices
4) The swine flu problem should be fixed and herd replacements should be achieved by late this year or early next year in China
5) Look for pork prices to start dropping in the first or second quarter of 2022

JC


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## Dive Bar Casanova (Sep 30, 2021)

I’ve seen it several times.
When politics hit the food forums instant enemies are made, people get kicked out and non-American members severely dump on the USA.

It’s been a tough past 20 months and it’ll all settle down in time.
I’d wager a glazed donut we’re all barely 1 degree apart  in our takes.


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## JC in GB (Sep 30, 2021)

Dive Bar Casanova said:


> I’ve seen it several times.
> When politics hit the food forums instant enemies are made, people get kicked out and non US members severely dump on the USA.
> 
> It’s been a tough past 20 months and it’ll all settle down in time.
> I’d wager a glazed donut we’re all barely 1 degree apart  in our takes.



*I agree.  I hate talking any politics on this forum.  Food is supposed to bring us together not drive us apart.  The evil specter of food politics is looming too large too ignore at present.*
*
These food prices have completely hamstrung my summer BBQ plans.

I am not dumping on the USA or bagging on China.  The situation is causing a lot of folks pain and at the same time making a few folks very wealthy.

I am simply looking forward to the logistics logjam breaking, pandemic labor disruptions smoothing, and overall reduced services and goods becoming available.  I am hoping that we are not entering into a long term era of scarcity.

Lastly, I am only looking to make friends here.
*
*JC   *


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## SmokinVOLfan (Sep 30, 2021)

Got two stores around here this week butts on sale $.99lb a one and $1.19lb at the other. Ribs are still through the roof.


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## chopsaw (Sep 30, 2021)

SmokinVOLfan said:


> Ribs are still through the roof.


Yup . Ribs went back up here too . Spares came down for a couple weeks , but back up . 
I go every week . That really tells whats going on . You can track pricing at the point of sale and see what the cycles are .


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## indaswamp (Sep 30, 2021)

Sales for butts @ $0.99/# use to be a common and regular. Not anymore. I've been watching the digital fliers to get a perception of where the new price floor will be. Been seeing a lot of 1.89-1.67 prices....just last night saw $1.49 so I'm going grab some double packs for tasso, snack sticks, and smoke sausage.


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## 912smoker (Sep 30, 2021)

SmokinVOLfan said:


> Got two stores around here this week butts on sale $.99lb a one and $1.19lb at the other. Ribs are still through the roof.


Same here at Food Lion  $.99 lb and ribs $2.99..
No freezer space so getting a 2 pack to cook them freeze in portions  (learned that here ) .


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## chopsaw (Sep 30, 2021)

Made a late run to GFS today . The delivery comes sometime Weds. night so I go on Thursday around 9:00 . Got there around noon today , and the best priced stuff was gone , or they didn't get any .
The cheap no name chicken parts that were  $ .79 a pound last week are $1.19 now .
The 3 rack pack of spares were $3.50 last week , came down to $2.29 .

They did have Smithfield pork butts for $1.79 a pound so I grabbed a couple . They've been at $2.29 for awhile now .
So looks like chicken is on the rise . Just have to watch for what drops in price . Something will .


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## Bearcarver (Sep 30, 2021)

LOL---We haven't had Butts under $1.49 for about 8 years!!

Bear


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## SmokinVOLfan (Sep 30, 2021)

912smoker said:


> Same here at Food Lion $.99 lb and ribs $2.99..



Food Lion is the one for $.99 a lb. Not a great deal on the ribs IMO.


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## 912smoker (Sep 30, 2021)

SmokinVOLfan said:


> Food Lion is the one for $.99 a lb. Not a great deal on the ribs IMO.


No sir not at my house lol


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## bill1 (Sep 30, 2021)

Covid was bound to cause disruptions in supplies, demand, transportation, etc.  End result is a lot more price volatility than normal.  The best way to help the situation (and also help your own finances, incidentally) is to *shop the sales*.  
As others have noted, I still sometimes see deals on certain meats and certain cuts so I buy some extra for the freezer.  
If something seems high, I don't buy it.  Maybe someone else really needs it...they can have it.  And certainly don't stock up on something that's priced in a manner indicating scarcity.  
It's not about being cheap, but about wisely using demand to smooth out ripples in supply.  So buy the product with the apparent surplus.  If chicken is $4/# and beef is $6/#, buy the beef...it's at a good price and the chicken price is excessive.  

I agree we don't want this discussion to go political but one more point about labor...I've witnessed more than a couple instances where Covid made folks re-assess their lives and either choose Retirement or to work less and pursue more education.  I don't fault either one of these choices.  But it does leave holes in the job market that can drive up wages and prices. I can feel for those of fixed incomes that were already struggling.  But I'm hoping that, like meat and produce prices, things will come back into equilibrium and we'll all be at least a little bit better off for it.  God bless us all.


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## SecondHandSmoker (Sep 30, 2021)

bill1 said:


> Covid was bound to cause disruptions in supplies, demand, transportation, etc.  End result is a lot more price volatility than normal.  The best way to help the situation (and also help your own finances, incidentally) is to *shop the sales*.
> As others have noted, I still sometimes see deals on certain meats and certain cuts so I buy some extra for the freezer.
> If something seems high, I don't buy it.  Maybe someone else really needs it...they can have it.  And certainly don't stock up on something that's priced in a manner indicating scarcity.
> It's not about being cheap, but about wisely using demand to smooth out ripples in supply.  So buy the product with the apparent surplus.  If chicken is $4/# and beef is $6/#, buy the beef...it's at a good price and the chicken price is excessive.
> ...




Well said!


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## Dive Bar Casanova (Oct 1, 2021)

We’re all waiting for microchips and hogs to get back up to full production.

Nice cool afternoon yesterday so we smoked a few sides and made it do our favorite desert bars Thursday social potluck.


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## mneeley490 (Oct 3, 2021)

chopsaw said:


> Just for my own info , are the chickens a brand name ?
> $.99 a pound for Tyson whole chickens and legs is a good price around here .
> About 2 weeks ago GFS had legs and thighs for $.79 a pound . So I grabbed a several trays . These just said " Chicken " on the package . Not a brand name .


Chopsaw, the brand name on mine is Heritage Farm, which I believe is owned by Kroger.


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## chopsaw (Oct 3, 2021)

mneeley490 said:


> Chopsaw, the brand name on mine is Heritage Farm, which I believe is owned by Kroger.


These say " Chicken Thighs " or " Chicken Drums " In 2 " black letters . I'll have to look and see if it has a distribution tag on it . Just maybe doesn't make the grade to say Tyson or Heritage . I won't be grilling anymore of them . Might do some SV bone it fried chicken or crock pot . I'll use them for sure .


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## Dive Bar Casanova (Oct 3, 2021)

Wagu at HEB:


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## rc4u (Oct 4, 2021)

we still get get .66 cents a pound quarters..  10 pounds $6.66
Gold Leaf Fresh Chicken Leg Quarters, 10 lb - Walmart.com
and t-bones for good price Member's Mark USDA Choice Angus Whole Beef Short Loin, Bone-in, Cryovac (priced per pound) - Sam's Club (samsclub.com) 
and custom cut ,weeks dry aged beef delivered
Eighth Grass-Fed/Corn Finished Beef | Fresh Prime Beef Direct To Consumer (south40beef.com)


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## rc4u (Oct 4, 2021)

who doesnt want beef ribs like this
Beef Ribs (Whole) | Fresh Prime Beef Direct To Consumer (south40beef.com)


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## bill1 (Oct 4, 2021)

Dive Bar Casanova said:


> Wagu at HEB...


Granted, I've bought cars for less than that brisket, but that is a great price-per-pound for Wagu!  
Enjoy!!!


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